Those excited about Wadri in Arua municipality by-election should think twice. It will be the biggest miracle for Wadri to win Arua Municipality by-election which fell vacant following the death of Ibrahim Abiriga in June this year.
For starters Arua municipality has two divisions Arua Hills and and Oli division.
Oli division which is comprised of 100 percent Muslims and have been voting as a block since 1996. Most of the people in this division are Aringa who comes from Moyo district. This factor gives NRM Nusura Tiperu an upper hand because she belongs within the same community and being the only Muslim in the race she is most likely going to garner majority votes in Oli divisions.
It is also important to note that women play key role in Arua municipality election. In 2016 general election, the late Ibrahim Abiriga concentrated his campaign among the women while Bruce Musema targeted the youth. At the end Abiriga won the poll with a marginof 1250 votes as youth were busy throwing stones on the street voting that election is won through ballots.
The presence is independent Ejiku Robert is also another tumbling block for Wadri and oppositions at large. Ejiku has huge support in Arua hill a division where all the candidates are looking at to secure the seat. Ejiku had many projects in the areas and is supported by most business communities who make up big percentage of Arua voters.
The division within oppositions has also created a lot of bitterness within FDC supporters, most youth who have been taking parts in vote protection exercise have decided to take a back seat. This will act to advantage of NRM.